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It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.