Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
